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"url": "https://www.pagoolabs.com/stories/api/46/?format=api",
"id": 46,
"title": "Examples of Signals in Forex and Futures Trading",
"slug": "trading-systems-part-4-examples-of-signals",
"status": 2,
"publication_date": "2017-10-24T03:51:27Z",
"lead": "This fourth story in the series \"Introduction to Trading Systems\" explores examples of simple signals: the MA cross, Pin Bars, Engulfing patterns and Heikin Ashi reversals.",
"excerpt": "This fourth story in the series on Trading Systems explores examples of simple signals: the MA cross, Pin Bars, Engulfing patterns and Heikin Ashi reversals.",
"poster": "SeanManefield",
"content": "---\r\n#### **Trading Systems Part 4 - Examples of Signals**\r\n\r\nThe [previous story](/stories/45/2017/10/24/trading-systems-part-3-signals/) described the class of triggers we call signals. In this story we will explore some simple examples of signals. Most of these you will be familiar with and they help to clarify the terms we use in the next story on systems.\r\n\r\nAs examples, we will discuss the following types of signals:\r\n\r\n- MA cross\r\n- Pin bars\r\n- Engulfing patterns\r\n- Heikin Ashi reversals.\r\n\r\n<a id=\"Moving-Average-Cross-signals\"></a>\r\n#### Moving Average Cross signals\r\n\r\nAn MA cross signal occurs of course when two MAs cross. One MA has a longer periodicity than the other meaning that it will be slower to react to the latest prices while the MA with the shorter time period will react faster. If the previous trend had been a bear market then prices would generally be below the two MAs with the faster MA closer to the real market prices than the slow MA.\r\n\r\n![MAs above prices in downtrend](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/EJ-D1-MA-DN-20171013-2.png \"EURJPY MA Downtrend\"):C80\r\n\r\nIn a bull market, the opposite occurs with the slow MA below the faster, and *both* below the actual rising prices. The two charts of EURJPY show different phases of a cycle, with the first above showing a downtrend with the MAs lying above and to the right, and the following chart showing an uptrend with MAs underneath.\r\n\r\n![MAs below prices in uptrend](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/EJ-D1-MA-UP-20171013-0.png \"EURJPY MA Uptrend\"):C80\r\n\r\nFor the slow MA to be above the faster MA in a bear market but below in a bull market they must have **crossed** over at some point when the trend reversed. This is point A in the charts. This crossover point is frequently used as either a trend starting point or even as an entry signal for actual trading.\r\n![MA Cross on USDJPY](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/USDJPY-MA-Cross-20171017.png \"MA Cross on USDJPY\"):R40\r\n\r\nWe could use a second set of MAs with even shorter periods, such as MA20 and MA8, as our *signal* while reserving the longer 100 period MA as an indicator of *trend*. While admittedly simple, such a trading system could in fact work, depending on how you tested and implemented it. If there is an advantage to using a more complicated system, you should find that out in the testing.\r\n\r\nThe setup itself is made complicated by the long period of time that evolves while a cross is taking place and the fact that because we are dealing with averages, the low probably does not occur in the same period as the cross. Instead find the lowest price of all the bars leading up to the cross starting from the last downtrend. During the downtrend, prices were higher. At some point they must have flattened out before turning up to create the cross. Sometime in that period a lowest price must have been set. Use that low for the SL. Refer to the accompanying chart of the S&P futures.\r\n\r\n![MA Cross Setup on S&P500](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/SPX-D1-UpT-MACross-Setup-20171019.png \"MA Cross Setup on S&P500\"):R60\r\n\r\nEven if you witness a cross forming during the period, it may or may not actually appear on the charts depending on the closing price of the bar that day. You can never be sure the cross will complete until the close of trading. The open price should be the open of the very first bar *following* the cross although you're free to enact some intricate open policy that involves a confirmation pattern. That policy emerges later from your testing.\r\n\r\nWith the SL and OP set you can easily calculate the number of contracts to open (CO). The TP would usually be based on some multiple of the risk (OP-SL) and I will discuss that important topic in the story on [testing systems](/stories/48/2017/10/24/trading-systems-part-6-simulations-on-systems/). With the OP, SL, TP and CO we have all the elements required for the setup based on a particular signal.\r\n\r\nTo summarize the MA cross signal:\r\n\r\n- In an uptrend, when the faster MA crosses from below the slower MA to above, open a long position.\r\n- In a downtrend, when the faster MA crosses from above the slower MA to below, open a short position.\r\n\r\nBut MA crosses are just one class of signals out of many. Let's look at a few more.<a id=\"Pin-Bar-Signals\"></a>\r\n\r\n\r\n#### Pin Bar Signals\r\n\r\nPin bars belong to a set of simple candlestick patterns, such as doji, hanging man or shooting star. These are sometimes called pin bars when they exhibit certain extra characteristics such as position, shape and size that dominate surrounding bars. There are many other candlestick patterns and we plan to run a future story on some of these and how to use them in a system.\r\n\r\n![Pin bar in an uptrend](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/OK-PB-20171013.png \"Pin bar in an uptrend\"):R40\r\nA pin bar is a candlestick with a small body at one end and a much longer tail. The key idea is that a particular area has been tested by the long tail and rejected. The market probed down into the support area, triggered the stops and instead of continuing in that direction, bounced right back. The open trades that did not trigger are now considered to belong to *stronger hands*: traders who are less likely to be stopped out next time.\r\n\r\n![Pin bar](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/Pin_Bar.png \"Pin bar\"):R40\r\nBy shape alone, a pin bar is like a traditional hanging man or shooting star candlestick, although most practitioners only accept a subset of such candles as true pin bars. A *true* pin bar must usually dominate the surrounding pattern and either indicate a resumption of the trend after a retracement or be at the bottom or top of the range in a sideways market. You should strongly avoid accepting every hanging man or shooting star as a pin bar signal. Critically examine the charts to see how often this pattern fails to work as a signal when it is against the trend.\r\n\r\nThe setup is straightforward - the SL should be just beyond the tail of the bar, and the OP could be the open of the next bar. Or you could set a stop-limit order to trigger you into the trade when the market price moves above the top of the pin bar head (for a long trade).\r\n\r\nWith the SL and OP set you can easily calculate the number of contracts to open (CO). As with the MA cross, the TP would usually be based on some multiple of the risk.\r\n\r\nUsing only a pin bar is not a complete system because if the setup is stopped out, it is rarely followed by another pin bar to signal re-entry. However it can be combined with other entry signals such as the engulfing or outside bar pattern to provide a more complete system, and we turn to that now.<a id=\"Engulfing-pattern-signals\"></a>\r\n\r\n\r\n#### Engulfing pattern signals\r\n\r\nAn engulfing pattern or outside bar is a two bar pattern where the second bar reverses direction and has both a higher high and a lower low than the first. In other words, the second bar encloses or *engulfs* the first.\r\n\r\n![Example outside bar in uptrend](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/OB-EG-20171014.png \"Example outside bar in uptrend\"):R40\r\n\r\nIf you think about it, this is similar to a pin bar except it plays out over two periods instead of one. On the first day (or period) the market continued its retracement against the trend. On the second day the market opened lower in a bearish sentiment and attempted to go even lower before surrendering to the upward trend in a wave of buying that sent prices higher than the open of the previous day.\r\n\r\n![Outside Bar](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/Outside_bar.png \"Outside Bar\"):R40\r\nAs with the pin bar, there is the strong sense that the area below has been tested and rejected. But testing and rejecting really only makes sense when the market is probing *against* the real underlying trend. When prices are moving with the trend there are multiple examples of engulfing patterns that never lead to any price reversals.\r\n\r\nThe setup is similar to the case of the pin bar - the SL should be just beyond the tail of the larger outside bar, and the OP could be the open of the next bar or you could set a stop-limit order to trigger you into the trade when the market price moves above the top of the outside bar (for a long trade). The TP and CO are as discussed earlier for the other signals.\r\n\r\nAs with the pin bar, it needs to be combined with several other signals to be a complete system. Together with the pin bar you might be able to catch at least one of the entry points in a trend but whether it's enough to offset losses would depend on what your historical tests will show.\r\n\r\nTo make the engulfing pattern and pin bar more complete, you could also add the Piercing Line pattern (or Dark Cloud Cover) as well as a number of two bar reversals that don't quite qualify as engulfing patterns.\r\n\r\nIn 24 hour forex markets, gaps at the open are not possible unless they happened in the final minutes of trading. For this reason, outside bars are less prevalent than two bar reversals where both bars have a common low but the second has a higher high. You might like to use these in addition to engulfing patterns if you are trading in forex markets.\r\n\r\nCandlestick patterns are a huge field and there is much to explore. Fortunately there are many sites on the web that cover all these patterns.<a id=\"Heikin-Ashi-Candlesticks\"></a>\r\n\r\n#### Heikin Ashi Candlesticks\r\n\r\nHeikin-Ashi (HA) is a different candlestick design that smooths out the shortest term fluctuations in each bar. Because HA bars are a different shape than the standard candlesticks, the technique is not very popular with traders. However there are solutions to most of these problems. HA is presented here as an example of an uncommon technique. Below, side by side are the same two sections of the chart of the S&P futures contract. The chart with the normal candles is to the left and on the right is the same chart using Heikin Ashi candles.\r\n\r\n<div class=\"clear-floating-cols-above\"></div>\r\n![S&P 500 with Normal candlesticks](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/SPX-D1-Normal-Section-20171020.png \"S&P 500 with Normal candlesticks\"):L45\r\n![S&P 500 with HA candlesticks](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/SPX-D1-HA-Section-20171020.png \"S&P 500 with HA candlesticks\"):R45\r\n<div class=\"clear-floating-cols-above\"></div>\r\nAll candlesticks are composed of the Open, Close, High and Low or OHLC. Heikin Ashi (HA) candlesticks are made up of averages of these four key values: haClose, haOpen, haHigh, haLow. Because the averages for the haOpen, haHigh and haLow are further averages of earlier candlesticks, each HA has a 'memory' in much the same way as an exponential MA. Here are the formulae so that you can see how the memory kicks in:\r\n\r\n Where t represents the current period, and t-1 the previous:\r\n haClose = (Open[t] + High[t] + Low[t] + Close[t]) / 4\r\n haOpen = (haOpen[t-1] + haClose[t-1]) / 2;\r\n haHigh = maximum of High[t] and haOpen;\r\n haLow = minimum of Low[t] and haOpen;\r\n\r\nSo the close is just the average of the current periods values but the others are all averages in some way of the earlier period, unless the current high is higher or the current low is lower than the average. It should come as little suprise that the HA reversals track an exponential MA cross of very short duration. ![SPX daily chart](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/SPX-D1-20171012-EMAvsHA.png \"HA vs EMA4/2\"):R35 The short period, or fast MA, uses EMA(2) with HLCC/4 as the value used in each period (if this is confusing then just use the normal close value).\r\n\r\nWhere they cross is often the same time period where HA changes direction, so we can use the MA cross as a proxy for HA when it's not available. For the long period, or slow MA, use EMA(4). Remember the bars must close before you can know whether the MA crossed in that period or not. It's much easier to visualize these reversals with HA so you would only use MAs if HA is not available in your charting software.\r\n\r\nIn fact, many of these signals are not independent of one another because they are based on the same four market numbers contained in OHLC. There are only just so many ways you can slice and dice four numbers so you will often end up with the same result from otherwise different indicators.\r\n\r\nHere is an example of the EURJPY downtrend chart shown earlier in the section on MA crosses, but this time using Heikin Ashi bars. ![Heikin Ashi chart of EURJPY daily](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/EJ-D1-MA-DN-HA-20171013.png \"Heikin Ashi chart of EURJPY daily\"):R55 In these charts, HA is displayed in red whenever the haClose<haOpen, and in green otherwise. A great advantage over normal candlesticks is HA highlights the runs in one particular direction, smoothing out the minor fluctuations that distract you from the bigger picture.\r\n\r\nTo be sure, HA candlesticks cannot replace the normal charts, but they are a great addition when you flick quickly between both. If your software allows multiple open charts, and most do, just set up the normal chart in one window and the Heikin Ashi chart for the same instrument in another.<a id=\"HA-signals\"></a>\r\n\r\n\r\n#### HA signals\r\n\r\nOne signal that is readily apparent is to open whenever a bar changes from red to green if the trend is up. You must not already have an open position and you will need to **wait until the first green bar is complete** at the end of the period. Because the bar has changed color, there must have been a low set during the change, either on the new green bar or one of the immediately preceding red bars. Just below that is where you place your stop loss.\r\n\r\nThe setup then is similar to the case of the MA cross. With the SL determined, the OP should be the open of the first bar *after* the green reversal bar (red in a downtrend). The TP and CO are as discussed earlier for the other signals. See [The Basic Setup](/stories/38/2017/10/24/basic-trade-setup-part-1-introduction/) if you are unclear on any aspect of the setup tool.\r\n\r\n![Heikin Ashi chart of S&P500](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/SPX-D1-HA-rev-20171012-2.png \"Heikin Ashi chart of S&P500\"):C90\r\n\r\nAbove, in the Heikin Ashi chart of the S&P500 continuous futures contract, most of the HA reversals have been marked with a green check if they have not yet been stopped out, or a red cross if subsequent prices triggered the SL.\r\n\r\nEven in an uptrend it's possible to see that about half the reversals were successful and the other half failed. That's because the unsuccessful signals occur in areas of consolidation and involved much whipsawing causing many minor reversals. The successful signals on the other hand resulted in resumption of the trend and continued for some time before the next HA reversal down.\r\n\r\nIf you open a signal that eventually fails you will open the next signal, which should come after the series of bars that stopped out your trade. If that fails you will open the next, and so on. Eventually, unless the trend has changed, you will be in a position that has the lowest SL of all those earlier failed trades.\r\n\r\nYou can see this on the chart above in the troublesome area after point A. The first setup fails, triggered by the concerns over the UK Brexit vote. When the market resumes in the direction of the trend, a new HA signal is triggered, this time with a lower SL than the first setup. None of the bad HA setups that follow should impact the open position because its stop never gets triggered and one of the rules is to not open a second position.\r\n\r\nHowever if for some reason you did not enter on the first signal, the next occurs about six days later. It eventually fails, stopped out by the US 2016 election result. Before then however there are multiple signals to enter, all of which fail for the same reason, but none of which affect you because you already have an open position. The point is that many of the failed signals on a chart are irrelevant, you will be in the first one until that fails, if it does. If it wins it will of course need a TP to compensate for the losses.\r\n\r\nThe HA signal is complete in the sense that the trend cannot resume without you. It is not possible for the market to trade higher after a period of retracement without first signaling an HA reversal.\r\n\r\nWhat could go wrong is that the reversal bar could be very large and untradable, like the spike we talked about above for pin bars. In that case you will have to wait for a more reasonable sized correction. Large spikes usually, but not always, provide these later opportunities. In the meantime however, you could miss out on a substantial rally in line with the trend.\r\n\r\nAside from the huge reversal spikes, the only part of the trend that is not covered are the bars after the TP has been hit and before the next HA signal. If the next signal is higher than the TP, which can happen, then the trader will miss out on a portion of the trend.\r\n\r\nThe disadvantage of the HA is that it displays candlestick bars that are slightly different to the real bars - it is after all an averaging system. To correct this, use your software to show both charts, the normal one and the HA, side by side. Or better still, place one chart on top of the other and then flick between them so that you can see the signals and the original chart. In this series, whenever I can, I will try to place them side by side with the HA on the right. Also, the normal chart has the EMA4 (green) and EMA2 (gold) moving averages so that you can compare the signals with the HA chart.\r\n\r\nThis section has not done justice to Heikin Ashi which has its own set of candlestick patterns differing from the traditional ones. Candlestick tails (shadows) or their absence take on new meaning. If you are interested, there are many books and sites on the web that discuss this technique further.\r\n\r\n#### Custom Signals\r\n\r\nThese examples above illustrate how to create a setup around any custom signal. All that is required is a clear, unambiguous trigger to open a position starting at a particular time period with some condition specifying the open price. To open the position you use the setup tools from our earlier series on \"The Basic Setup\". Looking around the area the signal occurs, you should be able to identify the most appropriate SL level. The setup tools describe the number of contracts and your own simulation described in a later story determine the TP.\r\n\r\n#### Summary\r\n\r\nHere we discussed what qualifies as a signal and showed several different signals based on MAs, candlestick patterns and Heikin Ashi charts.\r\n\r\nNote, these are all simple signaling systems: there is nothing complex about a pin bar or crossing moving average. Taken by themselves they could lose more than they would win. However when combined into a system they become powerful trading tools.\r\n\r\nIn other stories and posts I may use different signals just to show how widely the system method can be applied. While it does not depend on any one signal strategy, every system needs at least one signal strategy in order to trigger opening a long or short position.\r\n\r\nThe problem with signals is that sometimes they fail and the setup is stopped out. By itself, all we can say is the signal was successful or unsuccessful. However if losses are accumulating in the account then you are faced with the very real prospect of being wiped out. We need the bigger picture to see if all the positions we have opened as a result of signals are winning or likely to win.\r\n\r\nNow we turn to [building our first system](/stories/47/2017/10/24/trading-systems-part-5-systems/). With all the building blocks in place - trend, setup and signal - it is just a matter of assembling them in the right order into a system.\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n\r\nCopyright (C) PagooLABS 2017. All Rights Reserved.\r\n\r\n\r\n*[HA]: Heikin Ashi\r\n*[EMA]: Exponential Moving Average - has a long 'memory'\r\n*[OHLC]: Open, High, Low, Close: the 4 key values for any bar on a chart\r\n*[bull]: An uptrending or rising market\r\n*[bear]: A downtrending or falling market\r\n*[SL]: stop loss\r\n*[TP]: target price\r\n*[OP]: open price\r\n*[CR]: Contract Risk\r\n*[CS]: contract size\r\n*[CO]: number of contracts opened\r\n*[MR]: Maximum Risk\r\n*[USD]: United States Dollar\r\n*[AUD]: Australian Dollar\r\n*[Yen]: The Japanese currency\r\n*[Euro]: The European currency\r\n*[EURJPY]: The Euro - Yen cross currency: buying Euros priced in Yen\r\n*[forex]: Foreign Exchange including markets and trading\r\n*[instrument]: A particular traded forex or futures contract such as gold or USDJPY\r\n*[instruments]: Particular traded forex or futures contracts such as gold or USDJPY\r\n*[indicator]: A calculated line, such as a Moving Average drawn on a chart, that is separate from the OHLC prices but often calculated from them\r\n*[indicators]: Calculated lines, such as Moving Averages drawn on a chart, that are separate from the OHLC prices but often calculated from them\r\n*[H4]: Chart of the four hour timeframe\r\n*[M5]: Chart of the five minute timeframe\r\n*[H1]: Chart of the one hour timeframe",
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"url": "https://www.pagoolabs.com/stories/api/44/?format=api",
"id": 44,
"title": "What you Need to Know About Timeframes, Fundamentals and Reversals in Forex and Futures Systems",
"slug": "trading-systems-part-2-timeframes-fundamentals-reversals-and-retracements",
"status": 2,
"publication_date": "2017-10-24T03:47:29Z",
"lead": "This second story in the series \"Introduction to Trading Systems\" investigates how timeframes and fundamentals affect the trend. We also look at how to distinguish retracements from trend reversals.",
"excerpt": "This second story in the series on Trading Systems investigates how timeframes and fundamentals affect the trend. We also look at how to distinguish retracements from trend reversals.",
"poster": "SeanManefield",
"content": "---\r\n#### **Trading Systems Part 2**\r\n\r\nThe [previous story](/stories/43/2017/10/24/trading-systems-part-1-introduction/) introduced trends and showed how to recognize them using higher-high and higher-low cycles, (HH-HL, or LH-LL in downtrends) and moving averages. Here we will look further into timeframes and fundamentals to see how they affect the trend.\r\n\r\nIn some cases a trend can be almost indistinguishable from a sideways pattern. Cases like this are to be avoided because if other traders in the market lack conviction why should you be so convinced? Trade another market and come back to this one when the trend is more obvious.\r\n\r\n<a id=\"shorter-timeframes\">\r\n#### Shorter Timeframes\r\n\r\nAnother alternative is to move your trading to a shorter time frame: what looks like a series of whipsaws going nowhere on the weekly, may look like a strong trend on the latest section of the H4 chart. Equally, you could move to a longer timeframe: what looks like a sideways market on the H4 may be just a small retrace forming in a steady trend on the weekly. Favor longer over shorter timeframes if you can.\r\n\r\nYour charting software usually allows you to choose between various timeframes. The common ones include:\r\n\r\n- one minute\r\n- 5 minutes\r\n- 15 minutes\r\n- one hour\r\n- 4 hours (H4)\r\n- one day (D1)\r\n- one week (W1) and\r\n- one month\r\n\r\nEach timeframe collapses all the trades for that period into one bar on the chart. The open and the close are the prices where the time period began and ended respectively, and the high and low are the trading extremes over the duration of the period.\r\n\r\nIn general you should aim to trade the daily. This allows you 24 hours to digest a single candlestick, which is often enough time to review the news. You will have several days at least between trades, enough time to recover from a failed trade as well as time to remind yourself after a successful trade that you are very much human. In ancient Rome a slave would whisper in Caesar's ear that he should *\"Remember, you are only a mortal!\"* while enjoying the adolation of the crowd during a victory triumph. A win is often a lot of money so never let success carry you away. It's just a trading system and sometimes it wins, sometimes it loses. A level head helps.\r\n\r\nHowever if the markets are trendless on the daily or weekly charts, you might consider trading shorter timeframes where a tradable trend may be easier to see. Consider the Gold futures contract where gold has been consolidating sideways on the weekly chart after falling from its 2011 European crisis highs.\r\n\r\nHere is how a longer timeframe (weekly) looks for the Gold continuous futures contract:\r\n![Gold Futures - no trend on the weekly](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/Gold-Wk-NoT-20171015.png \"Gold Futures - no trend on the weekly\"):C90\r\n\r\nThose little wiggles in the chart look insignificant on the weekly but on the H4 they display a tradable trend:![Gold Futures - H4 trending](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/Gold-H4-T-20171015.png \"Gold Futures - H4 trending\"):C90\r\n\r\nIn terms of the basic operation of your system, nothing much changes in your setup, signals and system as you move to a shorter timeframe, other than the points I discussed above about analysis and recovery time. But there are some notable differences with shorter timeframes you must be aware of:\r\n\r\n- Unless the system is automated or you have trading partners scattered across timezones trading the same system on the same portfolio, no human can trade 24 hours continuously without sleeping.\r\n- You cannot assume the best signals occur while you are awake.\r\n- You will therefore miss many signals.\r\n- News that shocks the daily charts will so overwhelm the shorter timeframe that your stops can slip disastrously. Your system could be thrown into deep losses. Of course, the opposite may happen as well and you win, but then you are limited to a four fold win. Except for the very best, many brokers will force you to carry all losses but will turn on a dime to share in any gains should you win more than you expected.\r\n- Bid/ask spreads and commissions become a bigger percentage of the trade.\r\n- Margin comes into play because you will be buying more contracts given the closer stops and therefore the lower risk - see the series on [\"The Basic Setup\"](/stories/38/2017/10/24/basic-trade-setup-part-1-introduction/) for an explanation.\r\n\r\nChoose a timeframe that most suits your style, favoring longer over shorter timeframes where possible.\r\n\r\n\r\n#### The Fundamentals and Trend\r\n\r\nIf you trade a market you owe it to yourself to become familiar with its news and the fundamental influences that drive it. If the instrument is trading in a bull market you should know why. As it changes direction, ask what fundamentals have now changed? Are they likely to last long enough for a trade? Ask yourself the same question every day. This is your best early clue to a change in trend.\r\n\r\nIn a very important sense, the trend *is* the longer term fundamentals. If prices in the economy are inflating, gold, oil and other commodities will be rising in price. Currencies of countries with prices rising faster will fall against the currencies of countries with more stable prices. At present (2017), inflation is low and lower than many observers expected a decade ago. In consequence, prices for gold and oil are lower than their peaks set at a time when prices were expected to rebound. Of course, there are other reasons for the fall in some commodity prices but keep your eye out for if and when inflation starts to re-enter the system.\r\n\r\nThe fundamentals and the trend should be in sync, and if they are not then you should be cautious about trading that market until they are. Also, different timeframes have different fundamentals. A minor news conference or statement from the Bank of Japan might send the Yen in a new direction on the M5 chart but result in less than a blip on the daily.\r\n\r\nAs technical traders we are accustomed to the rubric that all news is already in the prices. There is a lot of truth to that but we should still be aware of the *major* fundamentals driving the trend, not the day to day press conferences or occasional burst pipe line. When the trend changes, the prices will reverse direction but it may just look like a deep retracement in the early stages. Knowing the major fundamentals and how that affects the markets you follow will help you spot a changed trend or paradigm shift sooner.\r\n\r\n\r\n#### Trend Reversals\r\n\r\n![Trend Reversal](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/UpT-Rev-EG-20171015.png \"Is the Trend Reversing?\"):R40\r\nIt is rarely clear when a previous trend is coming to an end and has begun to reverse direction. You could wait for a pattern of HH-HL or LH-LL to assert itself. Or you might wait for the faster (short timeframe) moving average to cross the slower. If you trade these markets you should have a good idea of the news in this area. What has changed in the fundamentals to cause this new market behavior? Does it look like these new fundamentals will be market drivers over the time horizen of your trades?\r\n\r\nIf you wait until a new trend is well and truly established, it may be too late to trade. These are normal issues that every trader has to grapple with. Follow rules that are consistent so that you can measure your performance and adjust if necessary.\r\n\r\n![Gold Short Pin Bar](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/Gold-D1-NG-Rev1-20171019.png \"Gold Short Pin Bar\"):C80!\r\nThere is a tendency for some traders to trade reversals because in looking at the charts, that's where the biggest gains cluster. ![Gold Short Pin Bar](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/Gold-D1-NG-Rev2-20171019.png \"Gold Short Pin Bar: Whoops!\"):R30 However, for long periods in a row, a trend can progress relentlessly in one direction. Based on probability alone, a series of smaller trades in line with the trend would be far more likely to succeed than guessing that one place where the trend finally ends. If you trade the trend then that last trade where the reversal triggered your stop would be a loss but all the earlier wins should offset that nicely. As you can see here above and to the right, what looked like a prominent pin bar in the Gold continuous futures contract, turned out to be one more bar continuing in the direction of the trend.\r\n\r\nThe one exception to this rule about not trading reversals should be those trading sideways markets, which I do not cover here.\r\n\r\nWhile it may not be clear for some time that a trend has reversed, evidence nonetheless accumulates pointing to that conclusion:\r\n\r\n- the fundamentals have changed\r\n- coming out of a previous downtrend the market puts in a higher low and a higher high\r\n- the moving averages cross, and\r\n- possibly a candlestick reversal pattern is evident at the low.\r\n\r\nAny one of these may not mean much but when several occur then its probably time to change over to a bullish strategy of buying the retracements. Evidence for a trend change applies equally at the start and at the end of a trend. Look to the much longer timeframe to see whether the new trend is likely to be a real trend reversal or a retracement.\r\n\r\n\r\n#### Retracements against the trend\r\n\r\nWithin the trend, retracements occur regularly. On the charts above you can see these retracements between each HH and HL. There are many reasons for why prices do not move steadily in one direction but it's apparent that traders have widely divergent views about the interpretation of events as they occur in markets. Perhaps you are yourself conflicted about which way a particular item of news will send prices. There are two views right there! Profit taking by traders on their winning positions could itself reverse prices for a time.\r\n\r\nEventually whatever was fundamentally driving the trend will reassert itself, the short term profit taking will stop and stronger hands will hold on. The net effect is more buying pressure than selling within a bull market. The retracement comes to an end and the trend resumes.\r\n\r\n![Setup after retracement](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/Ret-MA-EG-20171015.png \"Setup after retracement\"):R45\r\nAs you can see, this area where prices resume in the direction of the trend is an excellent place to enter a new position. We have a clear area where the market tested further price falls and for now rejected them. Retracements that signal a resumption in trend are valuable sources of the location of support and resistance areas. I will return to explore this area further in the next section on signals in Part 3.\r\n\r\nWhen a trend reverses, it is not clear until much later when prices cut through previous areas of support or resistance. However when a retracement reverses it is from a higher low in a bull market (or lower high in a bear market) and you continue to trade with the trend. The more time you spend with charts the less chance of getting the two confused.\r\n\r\n#### Summary\r\n\r\nTrade the longer timeframes whenever possible. They give you plenty of time to analyze the market and make the necessary pyschological adjustments you need to risk your money on a trade.\r\n\r\nEven technical traders should pay attention to the fundamentals as a guide to understanding the trend.\r\n\r\nDo not confuse reversals of trend with a retracement coming to an end. Check the history of the chart to see if the market is setting a higher low in what was a downtrend (or lower high in a previous uptrend).\r\n\r\nIn the [next story](/stories/45/2017/10/24/trading-systems-part-3-signals/) we will discuss how to receive a signal from the market. Signals are the heart of trading and typically include any special market price behavior that you have previously determined will trigger you to open a position. To do so, you will use the setup tools we have already discussed.\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n\r\nCopyright (C) PagooLABS 2017. All Rights Reserved.\r\n\r\n\r\n*[HA]: Heikin Ashi\r\n*[MA]: Moving Average over a specified period - 100 periods for eg\r\n*[EMA]: Exponential Moving Average - has a long 'memory'\r\n*[OHLC]: Open, High, Low, Close: the 4 key values for any bar on a chart\r\n*[bull]: An uptrending or rising market\r\n*[bear]: A downtrending or falling market\r\n*[SL]: stop loss\r\n*[TP]: target price\r\n*[OP]: open price\r\n*[CR]: Contract Risk\r\n*[CS]: contract size\r\n*[CO]: number of contracts opened\r\n*[MR]: Maximum Risk\r\n*[USD]: United States Dollar\r\n*[AUD]: Australian Dollar\r\n*[Yen]: The Japanese currency\r\n*[Euro]: The European currency\r\n*[EURJPY]: The Euro - Yen cross currency: buying Euros priced in Yen\r\n*[forex]: Foreign Exchange including markets and trading\r\n*[signal]: a price pattern in the market triggering the opening of a position\r\n*[setup]: An instance of a signal ready for trading with values for the number of contracts and the Open, Stop and Target prices\r\n*[instrument]: A particular traded forex or futures contract such as gold or USDJPY\r\n*[instruments]: Particular traded forex or futures contracts such as gold or USDJPY\r\n*[underlined text]: Congratulations! You have successfully hovered over text\r\n*[indicator]: A calculated line, such as a Moving Average drawn on a chart, that is separate from the OHLC prices but often calculated from them\r\n*[indicators]: Calculated lines, such as Moving Averages drawn on a chart, that are separate from the OHLC prices but often calculated from them\r\n*[H4]: Chart of the four hour timeframe\r\n*[M5]: Chart of the five minute timeframe\r\n*[H1]: Chart of the one hour timeframe",
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"url": "https://www.pagoolabs.com/forums/api/trading-education/?format=api",
"title": "Trading Education"
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"url": "https://www.pagoolabs.com/stories/api/48/?format=api",
"id": 48,
"title": "Getting the Right Target Price in a Forex or Futures System Using Simulations",
"slug": "trading-systems-part-6-simulations-on-systems",
"status": 2,
"publication_date": "2017-10-24T03:56:39Z",
"lead": "This sixth and final story in the series \"Introduction to Trading Systems\" tests systems to show how to develop an optimal risk/reward multiplier. This RR is used to calculate the target price in each setup.",
"excerpt": "This sixth story in the series on Trading Systems tests systems to show how to develop an optimal risk/reward multiplier. This RR is used to calculate the target price in each setup.",
"poster": "SeanManefield",
"content": "---\r\n#### **Trading Systems Part 6 - Basic Manual Simulations in Forex and Futures**\r\n\r\nWe are going to apply the techniques discussed in the previous story to show how to simulate a particular market. What we are looking for is an optimal risk/reward multiplier, RR. In the real world, however, we more often find complications.\r\n\r\nI will be writing other stories on this topic because this is a major focus of our web site: **Pagoo** or *Playing A Game Of Odds*.\r\n\r\nHowever to begin, let's take an example where an optimal multiplier may not exist because we all want to remain sceptics about this whole approach. What do we do when our method does *not* work out easily?\r\n\r\nThe **first step** is to find a chart you want to trade where a trend reversal has recently taken place. This means you can enter early enough to profit from the remaining trend. As noted earlier, you may have a notion of why that trend reversal is occurring. As a result you may have reason to believe the new trend is tradable. By 'tradable' I simply mean that the target price of the first signal is achievable.\r\n\r\nFor our purposes, let's take the S&P 500 where the market has been in a longer term uptrend from 2009 but suffered through a period of correction from 2014 through 2016. As you can see from the chart below, at **point A** a trend reversal takes place, made evident by the faster 100 period moving average, MA(100), crossing above the MA(200). You are free to choose whichever relevant MA periods you prefer, or just use price action cycles, or use a regression line or whatever makes you confident the trend has changed. Crossing MAs is just an example I use here. Mistakes are allowed and you will see the outcome of those when you do your testing.\r\n\r\n![Uptrend in SPX futures](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/SPX-D1-UpT-20171012.png \"Uptrend in SPX futures\"):C90!\r\n\r\nWe can readily see the S&P is in a solid uptrend but we did not know that at point A. In fact, all we knew was that the S&P had been uptrending for many years and had recently gone through a correction. For all we knew, the correction might have become deeper. Once the MAs crossed, we acted *as if* the uptrend had resumed. That's all we needed to know.\r\n\r\n\r\n#### Pin bar example\r\n\r\nFor our first example of a system, let's use the pin bar signal. It's a popular candlestick pattern and many traders already make use of it.\r\n\r\nThe **second step** is to mark every hanging man candlestick on the chart. A hanging man candlestick pattern has a small head and a long lower tail. A bullish pin bar is just a hanging man with a prominent size and location to distinguish it, but that will be clearer as we work along. Each hanging man has been marked with a green arrow. Now let's filter out the candlesticks that do not meet our basic criteria for a pin bar:\r\n\r\n- Ignore hanging men outside the range of the MA cross: marked as red **'OR'**\r\n- Ignore hanging men which have **n**o **r**etrace with at least two previous red bars: **'NR'**\r\n- Mark the spikes which seem too extreme: **'S'**\r\n\r\n![Pin bars on S&P500 futures](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/SPX-D1-UpT-PBs-20171012.png \"Pin bars on S&P500 futures\"):C90\r\n\r\nThat leaves five candidates that qualify as signals. The spike is disqualified partly because it is not preceded by several down bars and partly because the target price may be so far above today's market that achieving that TP seems improbable - and probability is the name of the game. Pin bar #3 barely qualifies, but it does have two prior down days but is not as prominent as we would like. Pin bar #5 does not strictly qualify but is 'rejecting' the area below the MA(100), which gives it a measure of confluence.\r\n\r\nAlso note that if we lose the second trade we will be out of the market until we reenter for the third trade. During that period there was a big rally in our direction. There's an earlier engulfing pattern in the first week of December 2016 that we could add, but then we need to examine *all* engulfing patterns as entry candidates otherwise we would be selecting patterns based on hindsight. I will just keep this simple for now, but this is the sense in which I mean a pin bar signal is not *complete*.\r\n\r\nThe **third step** is iterative: starting at an RR multiplier of one, consider each trade in turn in the order it would occur in a live trade scenario. We will mechanically simulate what would transpire given our setup and the calculated TP. We will hold that position, opening no others, until it is either stopped out for a loss or triggers our TP for a win.\r\n\r\nTo show the mechanics, I indicate the risk of each trade in the table below, where the risk comes from the OP of the following time period less the SL given by the bottom of the pin bar. I always move the SL a few points beyond the bottom of the pin bar so that my stops would survive a challenge at the same price as the pin bar low. I will count any final open position as a loss because I want to be as sceptical as possible in the simulation and I have no other way to handle it until it's closed or the trend ends.\r\n\r\nThe starting conditions for this table are:\r\n\r\n- A maximum risk of 2%, assumed to be $100,000 here\r\n- A Risk Reward ratio of 1:1, or **RR=1**, so that the TP is 1 x Contract Risk\r\n- We are trading the ES mini S&P500 contract with a contract size or CS=50\r\n- The columns are just the setup parameters except for the final two result columns.\r\n\r\n Trade# | OP | SL | Risk | CR | TP (1) | CO | Result | Win/Loss\r\n----------|-----------|-----------|--------|--------|-----------|------|----------|-----------\r\n 1 | 2078.60 | 2049.70 | 28.90 | 1445 | 2107.50 | 1 | Win | +1445\r\n 2 | 2133.30 | 2112.70 | 20.60 | 1030 | 2153.90 | 2 | Win | +2060\r\n 3 | 2281.80 | 2266.50 | 15.30 | 765 | 2297.10 | 2 | Win | +1530\r\n 4 | 2343.80 | 2320.80 | 23.00 | 1150 | 2366.80 | 1 | Win | +1150\r\n 5 | 2430.20 | 2416.20 | 14.00 | 700 | 2444.20 | 2 | Win | +1400\r\n\r\n Total wins 5/5 $7585\r\n\r\nWe went over the risk limit by 3% on trade #2. A small amount is acceptable but in general avoid extra risk of more than 5%. Also note that we were able to open all trades because each trade reached its limit before the next signal was reached. It's unusual to get five wins in a row but that is a consequence of the strong trend and the fact that we only required an RR of one. A low RR means the market was more likely to reach the TP.\r\n\r\nThe **fourth step** is to repeat the simulation, raising the value of RR by a small step. Let's run the simulation again, this time with an **RR=2**.\r\n\r\n Trade# | OP | SL | Risk | CR | TP (2) | CO | Result | Win/Loss\r\n----------|-----------|-----------|--------|--------|-----------|------|----------|-----------\r\n 1 | 2078.60 | 2049.70 | 28.90 | 1445 | 2136.40 | 1 | Loss | -1445\r\n 2 | 2133.30 | 2112.70 | 20.60 | 1030 | 2174.50 | 2 | Win | +4120\r\n 3 | 2281.80 | 2266.50 | 15.30 | 765 | 2312.40 | 2 | Win | +3360\r\n 4 | 2343.80 | 2320.80 | 23.00 | 1150 | 2389.80 | 1 | Win | +2300\r\n 5 | 2430.20 | 2416.20 | 14.00 | 700 | 2430.20 | 2 | Win | +2800\r\n\r\n Total wins 4/5 $11,135\r\n\r\nEven though we were stopped out of one trade, we received double on the remaining four so our wins exceeded the results of the first simulation. We can conclude for this market under these counditions that holding out for an RR of two times risk is more profitable.\r\n\r\nLet's run the simulation again, this time with an **RR=3**.\r\n\r\nTrade# | OP | SL | Risk | CR | TP (3) | CO | Result | Win/Loss\r\n--------|-----------|-----------|--------|--------|-----------|------|----------|-----------\r\n 1 | 2078.60 | 2049.70 | 28.90 | 1445 | 2165.30 | 1 | Loss | -1445\r\n 2 | 2133.30 | 2112.70 | 20.60 | 1030 | 2195.10 | 2 | Loss | -2060\r\n 3 | 2281.80 | 2266.50 | 15.30 | 765 | 2327.70 | 2 | Win | +4590\r\n 4 | 2343.80 | 2320.80 | 23.00 | 1150 | 2412.80 | 1 | Win | +3450\r\n 5 | 2430.20 | 2416.20 | 14.00 | 700 | 2472.20 | 2 | Win | +4200\r\n\r\n Total wins 3/5 $8,735\r\n\r\n**Step five** is to compare our results. When we raise our TP to three times our risk, the total profit falls compared to the case with two times risk.\r\n\r\nBecause our wins fell compared to the previous round, we would normally turn to target that area 1 < RR < 3 and iterate in smaller steps to focus in on an optimal value of RR. This final **Step six** would result in an optimal RR.\r\n\r\nHowever, in this case, it's worth looking further since this market has been in a long term uptrend. In fact, the S&P 500 climbed over 25% in this same period and it seems that a win of only $11K out of $100K in funds is too low, even if we only risked 2%. Others who are 100% invested in the S&P stocks have made about 25%, but only if they close now. In contrast, we are fully cashed up. Still, 25% is better than 11% so let's see what is going on here.\r\n\r\nFirst, note that in the previous simulation with TP set to two times risk, we won four times receiving twice our risk for each. So in total we made roughly eight times our maximum risk (4 wins x 2 x $2K), except for slippage cause by rounding down. So let's try to see if taking a trade with an **RR=8** will win:\r\n\r\nTrade# | OP | SL | Risk | CR | TP (8) | CO | Result | Win/Loss\r\n--------|-----------|-----------|--------|--------|-----------|------|----------|-----------\r\n 1 | 2078.60 | 2049.70 | 28.90 | 1445 | 2309.80 | 1 | Loss | -1445\r\n 2 | 2133.30 | 2112.70 | 20.60 | 1030 | 2298.10 | 2 | Loss | -2060\r\n 3 | 2281.80 | 2266.50 | 15.30 | 765 | 2404.20 | 2 | Win | +12,240\r\n 4 | 2343.80 | 2320.80 | 23.00 | 1150 | 2527.80 | 1 | skipped | 0%\r\n 5 | 2430.20 | 2416.20 | 14.00 | 700 | 2542.20 | 2 | Win | +11,200\r\n\r\n Total wins 2/5 $19,935\r\n\r\nTrade #4 was skipped because we still had trade #3 open and one of our rules is not to go over 2% risk. Not only did one trade win at RR=8 but we managed to win two trades.\r\n\r\nAlmost $20,000 is a substantial profit for a $100,000 portfolio that never risked more than 2% per trade, although by trade #3 we were down potentially 6%. The system I have used above is one of the simplest. It uses a crossing MA to detect trend reversal and just one type of candlestick, the pin bar, as a trade signal. There's clearly huge potential for improvement.\r\n\r\nThe gains took place over 16 months and the trend is not yet finished. As it finishes you can expect to surrender some of that profit as what appear to be retracements turn out to become trend reversals that trigger stops.\r\n\r\nAt some point it will become clearer that the uptrend is over and either a period of consolidation or a downtrend ensues. At that stage you can stop opening positions on signals. Until then the system does need to book profits to pay for the coming losses, or you could stop now until the next uptrend starts. Whatever you do, you must be consistent so that you can evaluate your performance and make necessary adjustments for the next trend you trade.\r\n\r\nIf we look at the chart, something we can only do in hindsight, we can see a number of pin bars have not yet had their lows retested and the chart is currently trading at all time highs. That means that *any* RR multiple would work, as long as we closed our position now to lock in those profits. But how do we approach this problem before the trading takes place?\r\n\r\nIf we knew the path of prices from the outset with clairvoyence, but determined to only enter trades based on pin bar signals, pin bar #3 would be best because it has furthest to run without being stopped. Yet it is also possibly the weakest shaped pin bar on the chart: small, does not protude from surrounding bars, is in a tiny retrace, is far above the moving averages, and so on. A reasonable pin bar trader would reject it. A position opened on pin bar #3 and held until the last day of trading would yield almost 18x risk, or $27,390 here because of rounded down contract sizes ($765 x 2 contracts x 18). So the optimum RR for this leg of the bull market in the S&P would lie somewhere between RR=8 and RR=18.\r\n\r\nBut you cannot know about this single pin bar in advance. When you see RR numbers going over five, stop and examine the situation further. Your entire simulation cannot depend on one outlier.\r\n\r\nThis chart is typical of the S&P 500. It represents stocks that have risen consistently for a century. The growing companies that comprise the S&P together with general price inflation, cause the index to be in a solid uptrend. There is no guarantee this will last but with all time highs being posted daily, it's unlikely to end anytime soon.\r\n\r\nThe current rapid rise we are witnessing is at the high end of its previous performance, comparable to the post Soviet Union bull market of the 1990s. This suggests that expecting an eightfold increase or more for a pin bar could be unrealistic for other periods. You need to go back further and run the same simulation in earlier time periods. This is the time to break out your programming talents, for those that have them. Even a spreadsheet would make short work of this data and the worksheets or programs could be reused on other markets and time periods.\r\n\r\nIf you don't have the time or inclination to program a simulation, print out the charts and user a ruler to find where stops are triggered. Do rough calculations for the trade risk and TP levels and avoid laboring over decimal places unless necessary for the market in question. The advantage is you will have a permanent record for your files.\r\n\r\n#### Summary\r\n\r\nTo begin our exploration of systems, I have picked an easy chart, although it is absolutely current and has some tricky quirks. Most charts will not be so easy because very few markets at the present time trend so strongly without pause. When inflation picks up, commodity prices should resume their uptrend.\r\n\r\nWhen we turn to other markets that don't trend so strongly, we will see that there is often an optimum RR somewhere in the range one to five. It's up to you to find that optimum so that you can calculate the TP for the setup tool.\r\n\r\nIn the first series on \"The Basic Setup\" I showed you how to bring together all the key components of a trade setup except the target price, TP. We have now come full circle, calculating an optimal risk/reward multiplier, RR, and therefore a TP that completes all the elements you need in the basic setup. Now with the basic setup in place you should be able to apply it to your preferred signal method and estimate an RR as input into a system of trades.\r\n\r\nPerhaps what you discover by measuring the results of your system under different RR values will lead you to calibrate the approach you have been using up until now, or even to change to a different signal method. That's all part of learning and trading.\r\n\r\nNone of these methods or ratios are permanent fundamental constants of the universe in the way that mathematical pi is. In fact you can expect RR and some of the signal filters to change over time and between markets.\r\n\r\nHowever if you apply your time and energy to investigating the trend and measuring the performance of your system rather than constantly second guessing every trade and whether you should take profits or move to break even, I believe you will be far better psychologically equipped to make profits in futures and forex. Micro managing trades will cause you to make so many mistakes you will lose confidence in your ability to trade anything. Aside from excess leverage, there is probably no greater impediment to trading than poor psychology and implementing a system will help you see that.\r\n\r\nIn our future stories I will apply the methods detailed above to calculating the optimal RR for other markets. I will continue to pick tricky examples, such as ambiguous trends or markets consolidating, because that's where I believe there is the most to learn.\r\n\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n#### Disclaimers\r\n\r\nAlthough the PagooLABS site is educational and does not advocate any position in a futures or forex contract, it is important to present the following disclaimers as additional information. Trading these markets can be risky and you must be aware of the following:\r\n\r\n**U.S. Government Required Disclaimer**\r\nCommodity Futures Trading Commission Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.\r\n\r\n** CFTC RULE 4.41 **\r\n\"These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.\"\r\n\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n\r\nCopyright (C) PagooLABS 2017. All Rights Reserved.\r\n\r\n*[pi]: ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter\r\n*[HA]: Heikin Ashi\r\n*[MA]: Moving Average over a specified period - 100 periods for eg\r\n*[EMA]: Exponential Moving Average - has a long 'memory'\r\n*[OHLC]: Open, High, Low, Close: the 4 key values for any bar on a chart\r\n*[bull]: An uptrending or rising market\r\n*[bear]: A downtrending or falling market\r\n*[SL]: stop loss\r\n*[TP]: target price\r\n*[OP]: open price\r\n*[CR]: Contract Risk\r\n*[CS]: contract size\r\n*[CO]: number of contracts opened\r\n*[MR]: Maximum Risk\r\n*[USD]: United States Dollar\r\n*[AUD]: Australian Dollar\r\n*[Yen]: The Japanese currency\r\n*[Euro]: The European currency\r\n*[EURJPY]: The Euro - Yen cross currency: buying Euros priced in Yen\r\n*[forex]: Foreign Exchange including markets and trading\r\n*[signal]: a price pattern in the market triggering the opening of a position\r\n*[setup]: An instance of a signal ready for trading with values for the number of contracts and the Open, Stop and Target prices\r\n*[instrument]: A particular traded forex or futures contract such as gold or USDJPY\r\n*[instruments]: Particular traded forex or futures contracts such as gold or USDJPY\r\n*[underlined text]: Congratulations! You have successfully hovered over text\r\n*[indicator]: A calculated line, such as a Moving Average drawn on a chart, that is separate from the OHLC prices but often calculated from them\r\n*[indicators]: Calculated lines, such as Moving Averages drawn on a chart, that are separate from the OHLC prices but often calculated from them\r\n*[H4]: Chart of the four hour timeframe\r\n*[M5]: Chart of the five minute timeframe\r\n*[H1]: Chart of the one hour timeframe",
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"forums": [
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"url": "https://www.pagoolabs.com/forums/api/trading-education/?format=api",
"title": "Trading Education"
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"replies": 6
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{
"url": "https://www.pagoolabs.com/stories/api/45/?format=api",
"id": 45,
"title": "Important Things to Know About Forex and Futures Trading Signals",
"slug": "trading-systems-part-3-signals",
"status": 2,
"publication_date": "2017-10-24T03:49:44Z",
"lead": "This third story in the series \"Introduction to Trading Systems\" explains a signal, the trigger alerting us to open a position in an instrument.",
"excerpt": "This third story in the series on Trading Systems explains a signal, the trigger alerting us to open a position in an instrument.",
"poster": "SeanManefield",
"content": "---\r\n#### **Trading Systems Part 3 - Signals**\r\n\r\nA signal is a price pattern trigger that opens a position. It might be a crossing moving average, a candlestick pattern such as a pin bar, or one of a host of other available indicators.\r\n\r\nA Signal then is a general *class* of market events that act like triggers. A Setup is a particular *instance* of a signal and includes all the trade data necessary to open that position.\r\n\r\nThe difference between signal and setup is much like the *concept* of dog versus a *real* dog. In your head you can imagine a dog and there is no chance of confusing one with a horse. But in the real world, dogs come in all shapes and sizes from cute little puppies to Great Danes. We still readily recognize a particular animal as a dog when it exhibits familiar dog-like qualities.\r\n\r\nIn the same way, signals are a class of triggers while setups are the real-world instance of those signals and provide the actual OP, SL, TP and CO you need to make a trade. You can use the terms interchangeably if you like which might result in some minor confusion, as long as you don't confuse either with a horse. When we talk about a signal, we imagine a reversal or some other specific trigger pattern. When we talk about a setup, we describe the particular SL and OP that surround that reversal, as can be seen in the annotated chart of the S&P below which uses a Heikin Ashi signal.\r\n\r\n![Signals vs Setup](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/SPX-D1-HA-rev-EG-signal-vs-setup-20171012.png \"Signals vs Setup\"):c95!\r\n\r\n\r\n** Open Only with the Trend **\r\n\r\nSo far we have discussed trend which I have argued will determine the direction of our trades. Since we only trade with the trend, we should ignore signals that trigger in the opposite direction. In a bull market we only open long. Since a computer program should in principle be able to flag opportunities on a chart, a signal must include all the rules you have decided to check before opening a trade. For example, if you only open pin bars in the direction of the trend then a pin bar at the top of a swing high is not a signal in an uptrend.\r\n\r\nWithin the trend we can use the setup tool to construct an OP, SL, TP and CS for *any* candlestick bar. Although I do not advocate your trying this, it explains why we discussed the setup first. The setup can be used anywhere, although probably not profitably. Since each bar has a low and a close, the low could be used as the SL and the OP would use the close of this bar or the open of the next. The number of contracts derives from risk (OP-SL). All we need to finish the setup is an optimal TP.\r\n\r\n** Support and Resistance **\r\n\r\nIf we applied such a strategy to every bar on the chart we could expect a disaster. There are too many whipsaw regions where stops would be constantly triggered. This naturally leads us to exclude most bars as open candidates for signals and instead concentrate on the small subset of bars where probability favors our trade.\r\n\r\n![Rejection & Support with a Pin Bar](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/Pin_Bar.png \"Rejection & Support with a Pin Bar\"):R40\r\nThe key to a good signal is that an area has been tested by the market and rejected. That's where we want to place our stops. The market may come back to test that area again and there is no guarantee our stops will hold. But that's also true everywhere on the chart. The one thing we know about an area of rejection is that it was tested at least once and the level held. Enough other traders entered in the direction of the trend before those levels were breached and that is an important defense of our trade in the future, raising the probability, however slightly, that our trade setup will succeed.\r\n\r\nAny pattern that tests and rejects an area of support is a *candidate* for a signal. Whether it's an acceptable candidate or not remains to be seen. Eventually you will decide on a small class of identifiable patterns that you will use as signals, all other patterns will be considered normal bars. Identifying areas of support (or resistance in a bear market) and how your signal exposes them will be your mission.\r\n\r\n** A Retracement Ending **\r\n\r\n![Retrace before Pin Bar](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/PB-OK-retrace.png \"Retrace before Pin Bar\"):L20\r\nWe might reasonably impose the extra condition that some kind of retracement occurred before the candidate signal. After reviewing all the historic data we might exclude from our signals any patterns that were not preceded by at least two periods of trading against the trend. This is a filter that *you* will decide for your own favorite signal. Trigger patterns that are not *prominent* in some way have not yet tested and rejected an area. The SL level you use must have a higher probability of surviving a retest than any normal bar.\r\n![No retrace before pin bar](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/PB-No-retrace.png \"No Retrace before Pin Bar\"):R40\r\n\r\n** Avoid Spikes **\r\n\r\nSometimes the stop loss level is so far away from the open price that the corresponding TP will lie somewhere far in the opposite direction. Reaching such a target price might seem improbable to an experienced trader. This might occur if our prospective SL is a large spike caused by some dramatic news that hit the market, in which case it may be better to wait for the next retracement to enter.\r\n\r\nIn the same way, avoid markets when major unexpected events are under way such as a war starting, the UK Brexit vote, or the USA 2016 election. Clearly there's nothing you can do to avoid these events if you are already in a trade and the unexpected is happening. But you should avoid plunging into a trade to take advantage of the volatility. Your stops will be highly vulnerable and the days following would be a much better trading environment.\r\n\r\n** No Waiting: Open According to your Trading Rules **\r\n\r\nDepending on your signal, you must open at the start of trading of the very next period OR wherever you tested in your simulations. If you wait for a better price you stand to miss out on the trade all together and all your testing results for the signal and system no longer apply. \r\n\r\nFor example, some setups fail and more of the trades that failed may have fallen to a 'better price' at the open than those that were successful, leaving you with positions in a greater proportion of losers. When this is true, your real trading results will underperform your tests results.\r\n\r\n** Only One Position at a Time **\r\n\r\nSince we do not want our total risk in this position to exceed 2%, never open a new trade when one is already open, except in other uncorrelated markets. If your trade is winning, other traders will be on the same ride as you. New signals occurring in the market at that time will be ignored by successful traders because they know not to amplify their risks with more than 2% of their risk capital, or whatever percentage they allocate to an open trade. That means you will be opening a trade where other traders are less likely to join in to help propel the price in your direction.\r\n\r\n![No Multiple Positions](/media/uploads/2017/basic_system_trading/SPX-D1-HA-rev-Single-Positions-20171012-2.png \"No Multiple Positions\"):R50\r\nThis is also true if there had earlier been a clear signal that you missed for some reason. The other traders whom you would like to join you in this trade are already in that earlier one. There are no secrets in the markets - if you can see a signal worth trading then so can many others. What may look like a pin bar to you could look like an engulfing pattern to another trader using a shorter timeframe. If the price moves up then another trader's MAs will cross. Momentum will also change, triggering even more traders to join the trade. So other traders may be following different signals to you but they may still be triggered to open in the same general area as your signal.\r\n\r\nTread carefully once you have open trades and always check the correlations between the markets you choose. If two markets are 100% correlated then you cannot have simultaneous positions in both markets. It would be as if you were trading the same instrument but with double the risk. For this reason, avoid trading in correlated markets until you have exited the other position. If you are unsure about correlation in general or whether two markets are highly correlated then it's best to just trade one market at any one time.\r\n\r\n<a id=\"Rules-and-Filters\"></a>** Rules and Filters **\r\n\r\nA signal then is a set of rules about when to enter a trade. On the one hand there are the mechanical rules that I discuss below, such as a pin bar must occur or an MA must cross. These are mechanical because they involve no discretion and arise straight from a pattern of market prices on the chart. On the other hand there are filtering conditions we might apply before we open a trade. For example:\r\n\r\n- the trade must be in the direction of the trend\r\n- avoid candles with huge spikes\r\n- a retrace should be of a certain percentage of the previous runup\r\n- the retrace should occur at some key level such as a **`fibonacci`** or support/resistance area\r\n- never open a trade if you are already open in this or a correlated market.\r\n\r\nYou might apply filters such as these after testing and observing their effects on the total profit of the system, as I discuss later. However, you the reader have a lot of fertile territory to improve on what we lay out here. Many filtering conditions will depend on the precise trigger you are using.\r\n\r\nA common set of filters are the momentum oscillators such as RSI and MACD. Filters tend to keep you out of trades, which is their purpose. However watch out in your testing to see if they add to or reduce your total wins. Helping you avoid bad trades is good, but keeping you out of good trades that win multiples of what you lose in bad trades is toxic.\r\n\r\n** Signal Coverage **\r\n\r\nFor a signal to be acceptable it must be immediately recognizable as the pattern you are seeking. Testing should already have confirmed that similar signals are profitable and it should have relatively complete coverage of the trend. \r\n\r\nBy *complete coverage* I mean that the signal will allow us to participate in the full run of the trend. If stopped out, we should receive another chance to enter via a subsequent signal. Buying at the bottom and selling at the top would of course be full coverage, if only such a thing were consistently possible. Missing the entire trend altogether would be zero coverage. We should prefer a signal that has better coverage because it's more likely to keep us in open positions during more of the trend.\r\n\r\nMoving average crosses and Heikin Ashi reversals are two examples having almost complete coverage, while pin bars depend on how often they occur in the relevant section of the trend.\r\n\r\n#### Summary\r\n\r\nThere are many different kinds of signals and traders have their own favorites. Since this is an education site, we are agnostic here about which signal you use. In the descriptions below, I will deliberately use the simplest signal I can find. My purpose is to describe *how* to go about building a system, not to advocate for any particular signal.\r\n\r\nIn other stories and posts I may use different signals just to show how widely the system method can be applied. A system does not require any one signal strategy but it does need a trigger in order to open positions. For this reason, you will have to select a signal method you are comfortable with.\r\n\r\nIt may well be that it does not matter in general what signal strategy you decide upon. What may be more important overall is how you apply it. I will discuss this further in the story about Systems.\r\n\r\nIn the [next story](/stories/46/2017/10/24/trading-systems-part-4-examples-of-signals/) I will discuss several common and not so common signal strategies: the MA cross, pin bars, engulfing patterns and the Heikin Ashi reversal. These are all just examples and you are encouraged to use whatever signal method you have been using to date.\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n<br>\r\n\r\nCopyright (C) PagooLABS 2017. All Rights Reserved.\r\n\r\n\r\n*[HA]: Heikin Ashi\r\n*[MA]: Moving Average over a specified period - 100 periods for eg\r\n*[EMA]: Exponential Moving Average - has a long 'memory'\r\n*[OHLC]: Open, High, Low, Close: the 4 key values for any bar on a chart\r\n*[bull]: An uptrending or rising market\r\n*[bear]: A downtrending or falling market\r\n*[SL]: stop loss\r\n*[TP]: target price\r\n*[OP]: open price\r\n*[CR]: Contract Risk\r\n*[CS]: contract size\r\n*[CO]: number of contracts opened\r\n*[MR]: Maximum Risk\r\n*[USD]: United States Dollar\r\n*[AUD]: Australian Dollar\r\n*[Yen]: The Japanese currency\r\n*[Euro]: The European currency\r\n*[EURJPY]: The Euro - Yen cross currency: buying Euros priced in Yen\r\n*[forex]: Foreign Exchange including markets and trading\r\n*[signal]: a price pattern in the market triggering the opening of a position\r\n*[setup]: An instance of a signal ready for trading with values for the number of contracts and the Open, Stop and Target prices\r\n*[instrument]: A particular traded forex or futures contract such as gold or USDJPY\r\n*[instruments]: Particular traded forex or futures contracts such as gold or USDJPY\r\n*[underlined text]: Congratulations! You have successfully hovered over text\r\n*[indicator]: A calculated line, such as a Moving Average drawn on a chart, that is separate from the OHLC prices but often calculated from them\r\n*[indicators]: Calculated lines, such as Moving Averages drawn on a chart, that are separate from the OHLC prices but often calculated from them\r\n*[H4]: Chart of the four hour timeframe\r\n*[M5]: Chart of the five minute timeframe\r\n*[H1]: Chart of the one hour timeframe",
"image": null,
"forums": [
{
"url": "https://www.pagoolabs.com/forums/api/trading-education/?format=api",
"title": "Trading Education"
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"replies": 0
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{
"url": "https://www.pagoolabs.com/stories/api/39/?format=api",
"id": 39,
"title": "The Open Price, Stop Loss and Target Price of a Futures or Forex Trade",
"slug": "the-basic-setup-part-2-stop-loss-and-open-price",
"status": 2,
"publication_date": "2017-10-24T03:20:02Z",
"lead": "What are the key variables you need to know for each futures or forex trade? You will learn about the Open, Stop Loss and Target Price of the trade, along with how many contracts to open.",
"excerpt": "Learn how to trade Futures and Forex markets. Understand contract size, stop loss, target, take profit, margin, Basic trade setup, risk management, position size.",
"poster": "SeanManefield",
"content": "---\r\n\r\n#### **Where to Open, Where to Close - Basic Setups Part 2**\r\n\r\nIn this story I will show you how to open a long position in gold. You will learn the key data you need to lock down the potential risk and reward *before* opening the trade. Instead of opening a contract at today's price and then hoping for the best, we will dispassionately look over the chart of gold and determine our entry, a defensible location to place our stop loss and a reasonable target price given gold's recent **`price action`**.\r\n\r\nBy doing so we will have a trade with a defined risk (the difference between the open and the stop loss prices) and a defined reward (the difference between the open and target prices). Once the trade is opened, we will rarely revisit these key setup prices because to constantly second guess every price movement in the market will wear you out emotionally. You will be in no state to make a rational decision to either close out this position or open a new one. Instead, all this work must be done beforehand.\r\n\r\nIgnore price movements in open positions and instead focus your efforts on analyzing the longer term trends that drive the current price action you see in the charts. These trends arise from either longer timeframe charts or the fundamentals driving the market you are trading. For example, in gold the relevant fundamentals are the global risk environment, price inflation and movements in interest rates. There is enough there to keep you busy without becoming exhausted following minor price wriggles.\r\n\r\n####<span style=\"color: #090;\">The Open Price</span>\r\n\r\nThe current price at the close of the most recent trading on the chart was **$1260.75** in **`USD`** (United States Dollars). In general we will attempt to open at the start of trading of the next period immediately following the signal. We might set a limit order to ensure there is no huge gap but we have to be careful about trying to get a better price or we risk missing out on the trade altogether. The worst scenario is that we find ourselves 'chasing' the price as it pulls away from us. Never chase a price - walk away instead.\r\n\r\nIn this case we will accept the open price (OP) as set by the market on the next day. We hope to open our position at that price or lower. But before we commit our funds we need to know our target price, the stop loss and how many contracts to open.\r\n\r\n####<span style=\"color: #009;\">The Target Price</span>\r\n\r\nThe target price (TP), sometimes called the \"take profit\" price (and conveniently the same initials, TP), must be based on something more than your optimistic hopes for a successful trade. The first target appears to be the top of the range, about **$1295**. You will have to accept that for now but I have much more to say on this topic in a later story in this series. Later on, I will show how to derive the TP by applying a **`risk/reward multiplier`** to the risk of each trade, but for now I suggest we use *discretion* and set an appropriate TP from the chart alone.\r\n\r\nIt is essential to recognize that all traders have losing trades and your winners must at least compensate you for the losses. Some writers argue that because you have a 50% chance of the market going either up or down then you will win half the time. If that were correct you would need to target at least twice the amount you stand to lose.\r\n\r\nUnfortunately it is not so simple. We do not know the future so it may be true there is a 50% chance of the market going either way. However the market takes many paths to go up or down. Even in the 50% of cases where the market goes your way, there is also the possibility that before the market goes up it first falls enough to trigger the stop. Since the stop is closer than the TP, it is more likely that the SL gets triggered first. Afterwards the price might recover and hit your target, but without you along for the happy ride.\r\n\r\nFor this reason we should require more from a potential win than only double the risk. You must avoid any trade with a potential win less than double if you have only a 50% chance of winning. More on that later.\r\n\r\n![Gold daily chart](/media/uploads/2017/a_basic_trade_setup/20171008-Gold-setup2.png \"Stop Loss and Open Price\"):C90\r\n\r\n####<span style=\"color: #900;\">The Stop Loss</span>\r\n\r\nInstead of holding on to a losing position, with all the resulting emotional and financial distress, we are going to set a price where we will automatically close our position should the market go the wrong direction. By placing a stop loss (SL) on our trade we effectively limit the risk of the overall position.\r\n\r\nUnfortunately the SL is not a contract with your broker - why should they take a position off your hands that you no longer want? Instead the SL price being triggered will result in your position being placed into the market and other market participants will determine the price you receive for closing it out. In normal market conditions there is a mild amount of **`slippage`** and you may get closed out at a worse level than the SL you set. You should allow for that in the calculations below.\r\n\r\nHowever, occasionally the market may be **`illiquid`** as an unexpected dramatic event begins to unfold. In such circumstances there may be no one willing to take over your position at anything like the SL price you set when you opened. Although thankfully rare, such events happen often enough that you should heed the advice below about the maximum percentage of your funds that you invest in any one position. Although such a loss might be painful, if you follow this advice you will survive while all around you other traders are being wiped out.\r\n\r\nNow we are ready to discuss where to place our SL for this simple gold trade example. The key to choosing an SL is to locate an area where the market has recently tested a price and found **`support`** (or **`resistance`** if opening short). By choosing an area of support to place a stop in a long trade, you are raising the probability that your trade will also survive any renewed test from other traders. Note this does not provide any proof your trade will survive, it just raises the probability. As you will see, consistently trading higher probability scenarios will bring you out ahead of the game.\r\n\r\nFor our SL we could choose the low at point B, 1204.75, but that is far below our current open at point 'O'. It would be better to use the low of the retracement at about **1251.40**.\r\n\r\nAlthough this closer area is more likely to be stopped than the lower SL at point B, there is always the possibility of the market falling and triggering both stops. In the unfortunate event a stop at 1251.40 gets triggered we can sit out the potential fall in price back down to B. If a buy signal occurs there then we can open a new position without any of the additional risk of sitting in a losing trade, unable to take advantage of new market developments and unable to go short. There are other advantages to choosing the closer stop to do with **`leverage`** which I discuss below.\r\n\r\nMore to the point, you are not trying to be *right* about the market, you are just trying to win. To win you need to be opening positions in the same direction as the traders who are moving the market. If the market goes the wrong way for your trade then you chose incorrectly and you need to be out of that position as fast as possible. The nearby support area where you placed your SL is the only flexibility you allow the trade. Once breached, you should immediately cut your losses.\r\n\r\nNow that we have specified our open, stop loss and target prices for the sample gold trade, we need to turn our attention to the number of contracts to open. We will look at risk and contract sizes in the next story.\r\n\r\n---\r\nCopyright (C) PagooLABS 2017. All Rights Reserved.\r\n\r\n*[SL]: stop loss\r\n*[TP]: target price\r\n*[OP]: open price\r\n*[CR]: Contract Risk\r\n*[CS]: contract size\r\n*[CO]: number of contracts opened\r\n*[USD]: United States Dollar\r\n*[AUD]: Australian Dollar\r\n*[Yen]: The Japanese currency\r\n*[Euro]: The European currency\r\n*[forex]: Foreign Exchange including markets and trading\r\n*[signal]: a price pattern in the market triggering the opening of a position\r\n*[instrument]: a particular traded forex or futures contract such as gold or USDJPY\r\n*[instruments]: a particular traded forex or futures contract such as gold or USDJPY",
"image": null,
"forums": [
{
"url": "https://www.pagoolabs.com/forums/api/trading-education/?format=api",
"title": "Trading Education"
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"replies": 6
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{
"url": "https://www.pagoolabs.com/stories/api/54/?format=api",
"id": 54,
"title": "What Determines Which Currency is the Base and Which is the Quote?",
"slug": "what-determines-which-currency-is-the-base-and-which-is-the-quote",
"status": 2,
"publication_date": "2017-11-27T04:10:34Z",
"lead": "What do the Forex ticker symbols mean in foreign currency trading and how to understand Base Currency, Quote Currency and Account Currency.",
"excerpt": "We explain what the Forex ticker symbols mean in foreign currency trading and how to understand Base Currency, Quote Currency and Account Currency",
"poster": "SeanManefield",
"content": "---\r\n\r\n<a id=\"base-vs-quote\">\r\n##### **Base vs Quote**\r\n\r\n\r\nForex contracts are expressed as a pair of foreign currencies such as <small><strong>AUD.JPY</strong></small> where the first currency is the Base currency and the second is the Quote currency. The base describes the commodity itself, just like oil, gold or Intel stock (INTC). The forex contract is priced in units of the quote currency.\r\n\r\nFor example, an ask price of 84.75 for <small><strong>AUD.JPY</strong></small> tells you that one Australian Dollar will cost you 84.75 Japanese Yen to buy.\r\n\r\nIf your accounts are in Euros or USD then neither the base nor the quote of <small><strong>AUD.JPY</strong></small> is the same as your account currency. Your account currency would be Euros or USD in this case. A trading account will normally stipulate which currency your trading is based in and realized wins and losses from trading <small><strong>AUD.JPY</strong></small> will need to be converted to it.\r\n\r\n![Typical Forex Contracts](/media/uploads/2017/Forex_Setups/Typical_FX_contracts.jpg \"Typical Forex Contracts\"):R28\r\n\r\n BASE.QUOTE | Quoted in:\r\n-------------|-----------\r\n <small><strong>AUD.JPY</strong></small> | Yen\r\n <small><strong>AUD.USD</strong></small> | US$\r\n <small><strong>USD.CAD</strong></small> | Canadian $\r\n <small><strong>USD.JPY</strong></small> | Yen\r\n <small><strong>EUR.USD</strong></small> | US$\r\n <small><strong>EUR.CHF</strong></small> | Swiss Francs\r\n <small><strong>USD.CHF</strong></small> | Swiss Francs\r\n <small><strong>USD.MXN</strong></small> | Mexican Pesos\r\n <small><strong>USD.CNH</strong></small> | Chinese Renminbi or Yuan\r\n\r\nHave you ever wondered why the AUD contract is expressed as <small><strong>AUD.USD</strong></small> but the Japanese and Canadian contracts are defined in terms of the non USA currency, <small><strong>USD.CAD</strong></small> and <small><strong>USD.JPY</strong></small>? Why is the Euro written as <small><strong>EUR.USD</strong></small> and not <small><strong>USD.EUR</strong></small>?\r\n\r\nThe short answer is that you could write them any way you like providing there is a market and your broker supports those reverse contracts. However, most if not all quote vendors express the contracts in the same ratio we use here.\r\n\r\nThe long answer is that, except for the recent Euro, the reasons are many and fuzzily recalled. I have my version of the story to tell based on my own experience working with foreign currencies since the 1970s.\r\n\r\nBack in the dark ages, when researchers would enter data into mainframe computers using stacked decks of cards, there were many more European currencies than today. There were French and Belgian Francs, German DMarks, Italian Lira and many more. Some currency crosses were quoted in one fashion on one side of an international border but quoted in the reverse direction on the other side.\r\n\r\nThe preferred way to quote a currency for US traders or tourists should be just like the <small><strong>AUD.USD</strong></small>. When expressed this way, it gives the price of an Australian Dollar in the same way as the price of an apple: in the locally used US currency. On the other hand, it is less transparent for Australians who see a price quote that is slightly more confusing: how many US$ they get for one A$. That's like seeing how many apples you can buy for $1 instead of the price of one apple.\r\n\r\nBut the real problem was that currencies are rarely related by the same order of magnitude. So there might have been five Francs to the USD, three DMarks or 200 Yen but much more rarely 1.1 or 0.9 units of foreign currency. My memory is that the issue was resolved partially by aesthetics alone: it was never convenient to enter error prone numbers onto punched cards when the forex quote looked like a fractional 0.00512 US Dollars for one Japanese Yen.\r\n\r\nI remember handling currencies using both the normal and the reverse ratio but I and those around me mostly favored the quote where a digit other than zero was on the left hand side of the decimal point. It just felt better, and it was easier to check on the old printouts where decimals were hard to read. No doubt, the older traders around us felt the same way, although it was never discussed, as far as I can recall.\r\n\r\nUp until the early 1980s, one Australian Dollar cost more than one US Dollar. Other than the name, the two currencies developed independently of each other. There is no requirement for the two to trade at parity or any level other than what's determined in the market. The Australian Dollar derived from the Australian Pound (two dollars for every one Pound in 1966) which in turn had earlier derived from the British Pound. The British Pound in turn cost about US$5 through the 19th century until the turmoil of the First World War. Today each Pound costs roughly US$1.33 and is quoted as <small><strong>GBP.USD</strong></small>.\r\n\r\nThe Canadian Dollar traded around parity in the 1970s but closed out that decade around C$1.20 to US$1 so the quote was reversed to look like <small><strong>USD.CAD</strong></small>, with a quote something like 1.20. Had it been the other way around <small><strong>CAD.USD</strong></small> would have been 0.83, less aesthetically pleasing on the old printouts and terminals and slightly more error prone, although not as bad as the Yen or Italian Lira would have been.\r\n\r\nIf you follow all the currencies back to the 1970s you will notice a pattern where the currency with the greater number of units in comparison is usually placed on the right hand side as the quote currency. So the Yen is expressed as <small><strong>USD.JPY</strong></small> where there are today over 110 Yen to one USD.\r\n\r\nI believe we inherit today whichever pattern was common up to the 1970s when computer databases froze the prevailing ratios. This is true even for currencies like the AUD which have more since fallen below one US$. Modern computers with clear screens easily displaying the decimal point or comma mean we don't need to worry about those old punched card concerns anymore, but we do continue to use the ratios that were convenient in earlier times.\r\n\r\n<a id=\"what-about-the-euro\">\r\n\r\n##### **What About the Euro?**\r\n\r\nWhen the single currency was introduced the European Union insisted it had to be quoted <small><strong>EUR.USD</strong></small> and not the reverse. It could be that they hoped the USD would be worth less than the Euro, as a matter of pride perhaps, but I don't think so. For Europeans, the natural way of expressing the currency if you had a choice about it or, as in this case, if you were imposing the ratio by fiat, would be to set <small><strong>USD.EUR</strong></small> as the standard. That would mean European tourists and traders would approach a foreign exchange counter and purchase US$ priced in their local Euro currency, just as they would apples or anything else.\r\n\r\nIn the same way as Europeans express a desire to price oil in Euros, they would price USD in Euros. It would make the most sense and be easier for them to discern value. But they didn't.\r\n\r\nI believe the decision was poorly thought through. I think some Europeans saw the <small><strong>GBP.USD</strong></small> and compared that to their own French Francs (<small><strong>USD.FRF</strong></small>) or Deutsche Marks (<small><strong>USD.DEM</strong></small>) and decided they'd be the big boys on the block by insisting the Euro goes first in the ticker symbol, resulting in <small><strong>EUR.USD</strong></small>.\r\n\r\nHistory is littered with accidents rather than plans. Correct me with a better story in the comments if you have one. I am less interested in the official narrative than what the real intention was, if indeed there was one.\r\n\r\nSo that's where we are today - organically grown currency ratios for the most part with the Euro thrown in by fiat.\r\n\r\n\r\nCopyright (C) PagooLABS 2017. All Rights Reserved.",
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"url": "https://www.pagoolabs.com/stories/api/42/?format=api",
"id": 42,
"title": "Managing a Futures or Forex Trade with Margin and Target Price",
"slug": "the-basic-setup-part-5-manage-that-trade",
"status": 2,
"publication_date": "2017-10-24T03:35:01Z",
"lead": "What is the role of margin and how do we manage the trade setup so we can then sit back and let the trade work for us?",
"excerpt": "Learn how to trade Futures and Forex markets. Understand margin, trade management and position sizing.",
"poster": "SeanManefield",
"content": "---\r\n\r\n#### **Part 5 - The Conclusion of The Basic Setup**\r\n\r\n##### **Margin**\r\n\r\nBefore concluding our discussion of the basic trade setup I need to say a few words about margin. The stop loss being triggered is not the only reason your broker may close out your position. You will also be closed out if the remaining funds in your account, less the marked to market losses from a losing position, fall below a given amount. This amount is called the **`maintenance margin`** and it varies by contract as well as changing over time.\r\n\r\nEach day your broker will mark-to-market your open positions. It is as if you closed the position, recognized any gains or losses at the day's closing price, and then immediately reopened a fresh position at the same price without paying commissions. Those gains and losses accumulate in your account and, if negative, your account will fall in value. Each open contract has a maintenance margin requirement and you must keep at least that amount of funds in your account.\r\n\r\nThe exchanges and regulatory authorities set the minimum margin but your broker may set a higher percentage to protect itself and its other clients from losses arising from your account. It is your job to familiarize yourself with the **`initial and maintenance margins`** of all the instruments you trade.\r\n\r\nAt the current price of gold at around $1280/oz, a contract of 100 ozs would cost $128,000 if you paid the full price. However the current initial margin requirement per contract is only $4,300, or just under 3.5%. That means you need $4,300 in your account for every gold contract you open. The maintenance margin, which applies after you have opened the position, is around $3250 or 2.5%. Your broker may set a higher amount. If you only had two open contracts then you would not fall afoul of the margin requirement since you would have $98K still in your account even at the SL price. That's more than enough to cover the $6,500 maintenance margin (2 x $3250).\r\n\r\nHowever if you opened 20 contracts and your risk was $2000 per contract then at the SL price you would be losing $40,000 from your account leaving only $60,000. Since that is not enough to cover the $65,000 maintenance margin ($3,250 x 20 contracts) you would have already received a **`margin call`** from your broker. In many cases, they would automatically close the position in order to protect their firm and customers from losses occurring in your account.\r\n\r\nIt is important to recognize that your broker does not take into account your stop loss since the market may blow straight through it without pause. While you might think in terms of your risk being capped by the stop loss, your broker will instead be watching your available funds and the current value of your equity in the open position. This is more likely to cause a problem if the original dollar risk was small and you opened a large number of contracts.\r\n\r\nThe dollar risk gets smaller as you trade shorter timeframes. A typical setup on a 15 minute chart will almost certainly result in many more contracts than a setup from the daily chart. Those extra contracts may increase the risk of a margin call if there is a strong adverse price movement.\r\n\r\nAnother issue to be aware of is that if you trade frequently, the funds from your last trade may not yet have been settled. Although your account balance looks healthy, the funds from your previous trade are not yet available to cover the margin of a new position and the remaining available funds may not be enough to ward off a margin call.\r\n\r\nKeep a watchful eye on margin and avoid opening any position where your available funds only barely cover the initial margin. Your broker probably has tools to help you calculate initial margin so stay alert to ensuring a margin call will never trigger before your stop loss.\r\n\r\n\r\n##### **Managing the Trade**\r\n\r\n![Successful Gold Trade](/media/uploads/2017/a_basic_trade_setup/20171008-Gold-setup3.png \"Successful Gold Trade\"):R50\r\nAfter all our hard work in coming this far, how did the trade work out?\r\n\r\nThe trade was a winner! To the right you can see that the market blew straight up through our TP level and continued rising for quite some time before running out of steam. That's why we have TP levels. We don't know where the top of the market might be.\r\n\r\nThis trade was very profitable and the following table lays out the arithmetic that you can apply to any setup.\r\n\r\n<div class=\"clear-floating-cols-above\"></div>\r\n<a id=\"Profit-in-the-Sample-Gold-Trade\"></a>\r\n\r\n Profit in the Sample Gold Trade\r\n Maximum Risk:\r\n TF = $100,000 Total Funds (fixed)\r\n MR = TF x 2% Maximum Risk\r\n = $100,000 X 2%\r\n = $2,000 Maximum Risk\r\n Setup:\r\n TP = 1295.00 Target Price\r\n OP = 1260.75 Open Price (fixed)\r\n SL = 1251.40 Stop Loss\r\n CS = 100 Contract Size (fixed)\r\n Trade Risk:\r\n TR = OP - SL Trade Risk\r\n Contract Risk:\r\n CR = (OP - SL) x CS Contract Risk\r\n = (1260.75 - 1251.40) x 100\r\n = $935\r\n Contract Potential Win (CW):\r\n CW = (TP - OP) x CS Contract Win\r\n = (1295.00 - 1260.75) x 100\r\n = 34.25 x 100\r\n = $3,425\r\n Number of Contracts to Open = Max Risk / Contract Risk\r\n CO = MR / CR Contracts to open\r\n = $2000 / $935 Max Risk / Contract Risk\r\n = 2.14\r\n = 2 Contracts rounded down\r\n Total Trade Risk:\r\n TR = ContractRisk x Contracts=Total Risk of the trade\r\n TR = CR * CO\r\n = $935 x 2\r\n = $1870\r\n Total Potential Trade Win:\r\n TW = CW x CO Total Potential Trade Win\r\n = Win per Contract x Number of Contracts\r\n = $3,425 x 2\r\n = $6,850\r\n Risk/Reward (Win) Ratio:\r\n RRR = $1870 : $6850\r\n = 1 : $6850 / $1870\r\n = 1 : 3.66 Risk Reward Ratio\r\n RR = 3.66 Risk Reward Multiplier\r\n\r\nThe risk/reward multiplier (RR) of the trade was 3.66, meaning the potential win was 3.66 times the size of the risk. That's considerably better than the double I hinted at earlier in this series. Most important, we knew the risk and the potential win *before* we entered the trade. We are $6,850 richer for each $100,000 of available funds, ignoring minor carrying costs for the eight days until the target was reached. We achieved that win without risking more than 2% of the funds we allocated toward futures and forex trading. When you manage your setups and position sizing as I outlined above, futures and forex markets can be no more risky than the way many investors trade equity markets.\r\n\r\nSince the market continued to climb in a favorable direction, I appear to have left a lot on the table in this trade. You might have better ideas where to exit or you might observe another entry possibility following almost immediately, but that is not the purpose of this series of stories on basic setups.\r\n<br>\r\n\r\n#### **Summary**\r\n\r\nThis series of stories on the basic setup has covered a lot of territory and I will have more to say in future articles on many of the sub-topics mentioned above. For now you should have a good understanding of how to open a position and limit your risk while setting a target price compatible with your overall risk/reward ratio. You have learned:\r\n\r\n- How to limit the size of your trades to 2% of your risk funds or less.\r\n- How to only choose trades that have target prices that will result in wins greater than losses.\r\n- How to calculate the number of contracts you can open without risking more than 2%.\r\n- How to pay attention to your margin levels.\r\n- How to define a trade setup.\r\n\r\nWhat I have not yet described how to do in these stories is:\r\n\r\n- calculate the TP\r\n- identify a proper trade signal\r\n- [build a system](/stories/43/2017/10/24/trading-systems-part-1-introduction/) out of individual signals\r\n- lay out a setup in a forex instrument.\r\n\r\nI will be writing about these topics in the coming weeks, so stay tuned.\r\n\r\nTraders cannot guess the future. All we can hope for is to make sensible judgements about the trend and where support and resistance lie. Once we are comfortable with these important details, the next step is to adopt a strategy or system that is more likely to win over time. The [following stories](/stories/43/2017/10/24/trading-systems-part-1-introduction/) will lay out some of the elements of such a system.\r\n\r\n---\r\nCopyright (C) PagooLABS 2017. All Rights Reserved.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n*[SL]: stop loss\r\n*[TP]: target price\r\n*[OP]: open price\r\n*[CR]: Contract Risk\r\n*[CS]: contract size\r\n*[CO]: number of contracts opened\r\n*[USD]: United States Dollar\r\n*[AUD]: Australian Dollar\r\n*[Yen]: The Japanese currency\r\n*[Euro]: The European currency\r\n*[forex]: Foreign Exchange including markets and trading\r\n*[signal]: a price pattern in the market triggering the opening of a position\r\n*[instrument]: a particular traded forex or futures contract such as gold or USDJPY\r\n*[instruments]: a particular traded forex or futures contract such as gold or USDJPY",
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