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"post": "Hello Jono,\r\n\r\nTrue. See my other answer here.\r\n\r\nI constantly repeat in the story's text that the particular *method* employed here to determine trend and signals is not of great interest. More important is trading consistently with the system you have chosen.\r\n\r\nOne of the most important influences on the success of trading is the trader's psychology. The first step toward improving that is to have a system so traders have something objective to measure performance against. After that, it's another big step to improve the system and make it even more profitable.\r\n\r\nMost of the 95% of traders that fail in futures and forex do not follow a system with the required discipline. That seems to me to be the first problem to fix.",
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"submit_date": "2017-12-02T06:37:10Z",
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"post": "It will be coming up soon!",
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"submit_date": "2017-11-06T05:31:44Z",
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"post": "Hi David,\r\nYou have a point with trade setup #3 winning. According to me, the TP would be 87.80 which the market easily hit 3 bars later (12 hrs). \r\n\r\nHowever there was only a single reversal bar in the pattern and if you take such a setup once then consistency requires you take them always. I have found they often lead to failed trades. \r\n\r\nTrade #4 is also a single bar reversal and #5 is a series of inside bars, not really a reversal.\r\n\r\nIn this case you would win but over time, taking all such patterns leads to problems.\r\n\r\nThe reason to open after a reversal is that there is a sense the market has tested a price level and rejected it, for now. A single bar back is little more than noise and does not give me confidence the market has rejected anything. But the true test is to simulate a large number of these setups with single bar reversals, or inside bar patterns, and see if their wins exceed their losses.",
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"submit_date": "2018-01-09T12:10:36Z",
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"post": "This series on setups assumes a TP level is known beforehand. We relax that assumption in the [next series](/stories/43/2017/10/24/trading-systems-part-1-introduction/) on Systems and we show there how to use a simple simulation to automatically calculate a TP that works for many trades. Let us know if you have any questions.",
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"submit_date": "2017-10-29T22:59:40Z",
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